With over two decades of lending and underwriting experience, I always keep a close watch on the factors that shape our mortgage market. Canada’s latest inflation numbers are a case in point: headline inflation is hovering near 3% as we move into mid-Q3, and the central bank isn’t expected to budge just yet. What really matters to policymakers are those core inflation measures, which are still near the 2% target—a sign that underlying price pressures remain in check, even as energy-driven costs have yet to ripple through the broader economy. Gasoline prices may have moderated since early Q3, but they’re still up more than 20% year-over-year, while food inflation has cooled to about 3%, the lowest we’ve seen since late 2024. It’s worth noting that some market reactions may be overdone; before the inflation release, Canada’s 2-year bond yield had already surged by more than 40 basis points. Most major bank economists expect the central bank to hold interest rates through 2026, though there are always factors—like persistent energy costs, a rebound in growth, or tariff uncertainties—that could shift the outlook. My experience navigating thousands of deals allows me to interpret these trends and help clients understand how broader economic shifts might impact their mortgage options.
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